Visual Editors
Visual Editors, NFP was incorporated as a 501(c)(3) non-profit in 2004.
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Whitley
Michael Whitley
Joined: 10 Mar 2004
Posts: 86
Location: Venice Beach (Los Angeles)
Posted:
Fri Aug 24, 2007 7:49 pm
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I pulled the single-copy sales numbers for the LAT Barry Bonds and Virginia Tech issues just to see how did our paper do with a very traditional, quiet presentation. Here are the raw numbers:
LAT Barry Bonds issue: +17,165 over same day previous week
LAT Virginia Tech issue: +16,608 over same day previous week
Let’s adjust for percentage of increase over the LAT and Californian base circulation. These are the base circulation numbers I came up with:
LAT 815,723
Bakersfield 71,495
Bonds issue:
300 papers is an increase of 0.41% over Bakersfield’s base
17,165 papers is an increase of 2.10% over the LAT base.
Virginia Tech issue:
700 paper is an increase of 0.97% over Bakersfield’s base
16,608 papers is an increase of 2.03% over the LAT base.
For the Virginia Tech issue, the LAT increase relative to base circulation was more than double the Bakersfield increase. For the Bonds issue it was more than five times the Bakersfield increase. The Californian’s presentation is clearly more bold and active. But it moved fewer copies, even on a percentage basis, on two big news days.
That doesn't make what we do right or what the Californian does wrong. It's just not a black and white issue the way it is sometimes made out to be.
In fact I think it is important to do what is right for your paper and your readers. Believe me I am all for trying things and finding a way to put the paper in the hands of people. And I think it’s great that the Californian is distinctive and is putting effort into reaching readers. The combination of changes you have made to the presentation, the marketing and the focus of the content are generating interest in the Californian. But I think it is probably all of those things combined, not any one, that drives people to buy the paper. |
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Billy Simkins
Contributing editor
Joined: 27 Jul 2004
Posts: 141
Location: Bakersfield
Posted:
Fri Aug 24, 2007 8:02 pm
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One thing you have to consider is the % of your market that are already subscribers and what cities your racks are located in. The L.A. times is distributed all over California, The Bakersfield California is only sold in Bakersfield. If the Cal was at every location the L.A. Times targeted, the Cal numbers would be much, much higher without a doubt. You would need to get L.A. Times numbers for that day in Bakersfield alone and compare the increase to its daily average to make a fair playing field.
If our circulation is roughly 70,000 and our population is roughly 300,000, that means 1/4 of our population already gets The Californian.
That means we are roughly 1/4 saturated.
If the L.A. Times circulation is roughly 800,000 and the L.A. population is roughly 10,000,000 (2006 stats.)
That means the LA Times is around 1/12 saturated. (In L.A. alone.)
Lets say you double those numbers to reflect kids and spouses who may also view the paper from a single subscription. Now you have a saturation ratio of the Cal being 1/2 saturated and the LA Times being 1/6th saturated (in L.A. alone.)
These population numbers show about half the L.A. Times target area. L.A. Times target population is probably close to 30,000,000-40,000,000. Since most of the people in these outside areas are not subscribers, they have a huge unsaturated area to sell papers. Not to mention L.A.-X and the hundreds of hotels which sell large amounts of single copies to people traveling through. It's all very complex and mind numbing.
I agree each paper has to decide on what is working and not working in their own market.
My brain is scrambled eggs.
_________________
The dude abides
- Dude |
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scavendish
VizEds Moderator
Joined: 08 Mar 2004
Posts: 761
Location: Chicago Tribune
Posted:
Sat Aug 25, 2007 6:47 am
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| Billy Simkins wrote:: | You can't compare the L.A. Times to Bakersfield. One covers So.Cal. and the other covers Bakersfield. The only number that would be somewhat comparable is the head to head rack sales gains in Bakersfield for that day. When you have a lower saturation in your market, of course you're going to have more people heading to the rack on big news.
The outlets the L.A. Times has for single copy sales is on a different planet than the Californian. |
Look, I don't want to belabor this and turn it into a big semantic back and forth . . .
(you knew there was going to be a "but" here)
. . . but of course the LAT single-copy outlets are on a different planet. That's why you look at it in comparison to itself, not Bakersfield. The only thing they have in common is where each paper is distributing its own papers everyday.
So what conclusion do you reach when LA has a bigger single-copy day, percentage-wise?
That they were doing something different to "pop the top"? Because that's patently not the case.
You want to assume that the presentation style of the Californian is pushing single-copy sales on those days. That may be the case, that may not. But if LA sells more papers than they did the day before, why are they doing it?
Probably because there are reasons too numerous to calculate what increases rack sales. Surely design is a part of it. But there's no way that you can reach the conclusion that it's the single driving force when a much more staid paper is outstripping the Californian's gains on same day sales.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc
If you want to believe Shrek sold X more papers, that's fine. But until you limit out the other factors for that day, you just don't know, particularly within the percentages of overall circulation that you're talking about. It's a marginally significant number which may have as much to do with the weather, how many papers were dropped in different locations or one of 10 other things. |
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MattErickson23
MattE.
Joined: 16 Mar 2004
Posts: 772
Location: The Times of Northwest Indiana
Posted:
Sat Aug 25, 2007 7:31 am
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I know one thing after reading all of this.
The last time I popped the top, it was a freaking can of Pringles. The Cheddar Cheese variety. And I ate the entire can in one sitting. 'Cause, ya know, once you pop ...
It was wayyyy more gratifying than spending hours and hours trying to figure out why 300 more people bought my paper on such and such a day. Because as Steve says, after you get past the content that day, it could be any number of things.
By and large, I think the way most papers look at circ numbers and single-copy numbers is flawed to some degree because you can always make the numbers say just about whatever you need them to say. It just depends on who that day needs to be fighting a particular battle.
We no doubt sold a bunch more papers about 10 days ago when massive storms ripped through NW Indiana. No way am I gonna sit here and say it's only because of how the paper looked. People picked us up because they knew we'd have information on closings, damage control, who got hit the hardest, etc. (They also picked up our competition, by the way). We killed it with the content that day, and it was a big and even historic news day. Of course people were gonna buy us. And the Post-Tribune. And the Chicago Tribune. And the Sun-Times.
But on that day, if I needed to fight a battle, I could say it was because we had a strong headline and strong presence above the fold thanks to a great design team. If photo needed to fight a battle, they'll say it's because we had a great A.T.F. (Above The Fold) photo. If circ needs to fight a battle, they'll say it's because the delivery people busted their butts to get the papers to the single-copy locations quicker.
There are bajillion reasons why people buy newspapers. Or STILL buy newspapers, I guess. But until you get into each single person's head or do a 100 percent focus group, it's all just speculation. And more than likely, every faction at every newspaper that wants to take credit for single-copy sales (design, circ/distribution, photo, copy desk for having great headlines, editors who make sure the strongest stories are above the fold, etc.) should get some of the credit.
Suggesting that because you "popped the top" is the be all, end all, ehhh, I'm not just pickin' on Billy because I wanna pick on Billy, but seriously ... yeah, it's got SOMETHING to do with increased sales. But so do a bunch of other factors -- and none of us will ever 100 percent know what they are. All this psychoanalyzing is kinda pointless, isn't it?
On a side note, Billy, do you think the Bako will hire me as a consultant if I can nail down a marketing tie-in with the Californian and Pringles?
"Buy a copy of the Bako, get a free can of Pringles inside! Take THAT, L.A. Times!" That would be our pitch. I'd bet we could sell an extra 1,000 copies a day.
OR ... maybe Pringles could do a special edition of those chips where there's print on them. Instead of putting out a regular print edition of the Bako, you could REALLY pop the top by having all your stories printed on delicious potato crisps ... then when you're done reading the story (which would I guess really be just a brief), you could eat the chip! Seriously. Have your Marketing people call me and we'll get this going. By the way, that idea is TM MattE, 2007.
Now if you'll excuse me, I have to pop the top of this canister of Loaded Baked Potato Pringles.
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